SCHOOL DATA & REPORTS:
FY 2001 PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT REPORT

Executive Summary

• Vermont Public School Enrollment Trends
• Enrollment Projections: Grades K-12
• Vermont Public School Ethnic Distribution
• Vermont Public School Gender Ratios

• Table 1: Student Enrollment Survey: Statewide Summary by Grade, Ethnicity, and Gender

• Table 2: Vermont Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers - FY77 to FY01

• Figure 1: Vermont Public School Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers: FY77 to FY01

• Table 3: Vermont Public School Ethnic Enrollment Summary - FY77 to FY01

• Figure 2: Vermont Public School Ethnic Enrollment Numbers - FY77 to FY01

• Table 4: FY01 Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers by Grade and School within County (Legend)

• Table 5: FY01 Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers by Gender and Public School within County (Legend)

• Table 6: Five-year Comparison of Enrollment Numbers & Compounded Annual Growth Rates by School (Legend)

Vermont Public School Enrollment Trends
There are 102,049 students enrolled in FY01, a decrease of 2.40% from the 104,559 students enrolled in FY00 (Table 6). This decrease can be attributed in part to a new data collection methodology. This is the first year data was derived from a complete list of students in Vermont schools, the October 1st Census. A decline in enrollment was anticipated because the new methodology does not allow a single student to be counted in multiple schools as with the previous method. This is the fourth year of declining enrollment after a peak of 106,341 students in FY97. During the twelve year period from FY86 to FY97, Vermont experienced a 14.5% increase in enrollment.

• Table 6: Five-year Comparison of Enrollment Numbers & Compounded Annual Growth Rates by School (Legend)

Enrollment Projections: Grades K-12
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) provides K-12 enrollment predictions for the years 1996 to 2008 (Table A below). The predicted enrollment number for Vermont in 2001 was 107,000. Actual enrollment this year is 102,049 or 4.6% lower than the predicted amount. In contrast to Vermont's enrollment trend, NCES projects a slight increase in enrollment of 0.6% between 1996 and 2002. NCES further predicts a declining enrollment from 2002 to 2008. Overall, public school enrollment in Vermont is expected to decrease 2.0% between 1996 and 2008.

Nationwide, K-8 enrollment is expected to increase 2.1% between 1996 and 2008. However, enrollment predictions for grades K to 8 in Vermont show a 4.4% decline from 1996 to 2008. The actual elementary enrollment number for 2001 is 70,353 or 3.6% lower than the predicted enrollment of 73,000.

For grades 9 to 12, nationwide enrollment is expected to increase 14.7% between 1996 and 2008. Vermont 9-12 enrollment is projected to increase by only 4.0% over the same period. Actual enrollment for 2001 is 31,696 or 6.7% lower than the predicted 34,000.

The predicted changes in Vermont's public school enrollment are mostly consistent with the expected changes for the Northeast region. K-8 enrollment in the Northeast is expected to decline by 3.8% between 1996 to 2008. Grades 9 to 12 are predicted to increase 11.9% from 1996 to 2008, with most of the increase being an 8.5% increase from 1996 to 2002. Overall the Northeast is expected to have an increase in enrollment by 0.7% between 1996 and 2008. Predicted enrollment changes range from an increase of 4.0% in New Jersey to a decrease of 9.2% in Maine.

National enrollment numbers for all grades are expected to rise 5.6% from 1996 to 2008, with 5.0% of that increase coming from the years 1996 to 2002. The predicted enrollment varies between states from an increase of 21.4% in Arizona to Maine's decrease of 9.2%.

Vermont Public School Ethnic Distribution
Ethnic enrollment since FY77 is presented in Table 3. The procedures for collecting ethnic enrollment have changed over the years. In FY95 and FY96 the enrollment survey included a category of "Other" to be used for students who were of mixed ethnic backgrounds. This category, which may have contributed to higher minority enrollment numbers, was discontinued in FY97. Beginning FY2000, the enrollment in ethnic categories "Asian" and "Hawaiian/Pacific Islander" were collected separately. In Table 3, the data are pooled to allow for comparison which the previous year's category, "Asian or Pacific Islander".

Elementary and secondary enrollment among the minorities in Vermont has increased from 513 in FY77 to 3,736 in FY01 (Table 3). Ethnic enrollment numbers have increased 45.3% since FY94. The FY01 ethnic enrollment is slightly higher than the FY00 number of 3,302. Similarly, the percentage of minorities has increased to 3.66%.

In FY01 "Asians" and "Blacks," with enrollments of 1,446 and 1,117 respectively, comprised 68.6% of Vermont's elementary and secondary minority enrollment population.

The ethnic group with the largest increase between FY77 and FY01 are the "Native American/Alaskan" category, with a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.55%, followed by "Asians" with a CAGR of 9.37%. Black and Hispanic each have a CAGR of 6.87% and 7.95% respectively. The increase being reported in the "Native American/Alaskan" category may be due in part to heightening awareness and efforts to accurately report students' ethnic backgrounds. In the short term, from FY94 to FY01 the category "Native American/Alaskan" has actually decreased with a CAGR of -1.34%. The category with the highest growth rate during this same period is "Hispanic" at 9.10%, followed by "Asian" at 7.20% and "Black" at 6.39%.

• Table 3: Vermont Public School Ethnic Enrollment Summary - FY77 to FY01

A Vermont Government Website Copyright © 2013 State of Vermont. All rights reserved