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SCHOOL
DATA & REPORTS:
ENROLLMENT
REPORTS:
FY
2002 PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT REPORT
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TABLE
OF CONTENTS
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Purpose
and Executive Summary
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Data
Collection Methodology |
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Compounded
Annual Growth Rate |
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References |
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List of Tables and
Figures |
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EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
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Vermont’s enrollment
data is used in grant formula calculations for Title I, Title II, Title VI, Drug
Free Schools, and Class Size Reduction Initiative appropriations, and the Small Schools
Grant. The Vermont Department of Education and school administrators may use enrollment
data in projecting the need for future facilities and teachers within the state.
Enrollment is an annual headcount as of October 1, which shows where students attend
school. This information is broken down by grade, ethnicity, and gender. |
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Vermont
Public School Enrollment Trends
There are 100,867 students enrolled in FY02, a decrease of 1.16% from the 102,049
students enrolled in FY01 (Table 6). This decrease can be attributed in part to a
new data collection methodology. This is the second year data was derived from a
complete list of students in Vermont schools, the October 1st Census. A decline in
enrollment was anticipated because the new methodology does not allow a single student
to be counted in multiple schools as with the previous method. This is the fifth
year of declining enrollment after a peak of 106,341 students in FY97. During the
twelve year period from FY86 to FY97, Vermont experienced a 14.5% increase in enrollment.
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Enrollment
Projections: Grades K-12
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) provides K-12 enrollment
predictions for the years 1996 to 2008 (Table A below). The predicted enrollment
number for Vermont in 2002 was 107,000. Actual enrollment this year is 100,867 or
5.7% lower than the predicted amount. In contrast to Vermont’s enrollment trend,
NCES projects a slight increase in enrollment of 0.6% between 1996 and 2002. NCES
further predicts a declining enrollment from 2002 to 2008. Overall, public school
enrollment in Vermont is expected to decrease 2.0% between 1996 and 2008.
Nationwide, K-8 enrollment
is expected to increase 2.1% between 1996 and 2008. However, enrollment predictions
for grades K to 8 in Vermont show a 4.4% decline from 1996 to 2008. The actual K-8
enrollment number for 2002 is 69,170 or 5.2% lower than the predicted enrollment
of 73,000.
For grades 9 to 12,
nationwide enrollment is expected to increase 14.7% between 1996 and 2008. Vermont
9-12 enrollment is projected to increase by only 4.0% over the same period. Actual
enrollment for 2002 is 31,697 or 6.7% lower than the predicted 34,000.
The predicted changes
in Vermont’s public school enrollment are mostly consistent with the expected changes
for the Northeast region. K-8 enrollment in the Northeast is expected to decline
by 3.8% between 1996 to 2008. Grades 9 to 12 are predicted to increase 11.9% from
1996 to 2008, with most of the increase being an 8.5% increase from 1996 to 2002.
Overall the Northeast is expected to have an increase in enrollment by 0.7% between
1996 and 2008. Predicted enrollment changes range from an increase of 4.0% in New
Jersey to a decrease of 9.2% in Maine.
National enrollment
numbers for all grades are expected to rise 5.6% from 1996 to 2008, with 5.0% of
that increase coming from the years 1996 to 2002. The predicted enrollment varies
between states from an increase of 21.4% in Arizona to Maine’s decrease of 9.2%.
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Vermont
Public School Ethnic Distribution
Ethnic enrollment since FY77 is presented in Table 3. The procedures for collecting
ethnic enrollment have changed over the years. In FY95 and FY96 the enrollment survey
included a category of "Other" to be used for students who were of mixed
ethnic backgrounds. This category, which may have contributed to higher minority
enrollment numbers, was discontinued in FY97. Beginning FY2000, the enrollment in
ethnic categories "Asian" and "Hawaiian/Pacific Islander" were
collected separately. In Table 3, the data are pooled to allow for comparison which
the previous year’s category, "Asian or Pacific Islander".
Elementary and secondary
enrollment among the minorities in Vermont has increased from 513 in FY77 to 4,244
in FY02 (Table 3). Ethnic enrollment numbers have increased 65% since FY94. The FY02
ethnic enrollment is slightly higher than the FY01 number of 3,736. Similarly, the
percentage of minorities has increased to 4.21%.
In FY01 "Asians"
and "Blacks," with enrollments of 1,517 and 1,165 respectively, comprised
63.2% of Vermont’s elementary and secondary minority enrollment population.
The ethnic group with
the largest increase between FY77 and FY01 are the "Hispanic" category,
with a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.26%, followed by "Asian or
Pacific Islander" with a CAGR of 9.58%. "Native American Indian" and
"Black" each have a CAGR of 9.32% and 7.05% respectively. The increase
being reported in the "Native American/Alaskan" category may be due in
part to heightening awareness and efforts to accurately report students’ ethnic backgrounds.
In the short term, from FY94 to FY02 the category "Native American/Alaskan"
has actually decreased with a CAGR of –1.08%. The category with the highest growth
rate during this same period is "Hispanic" at 16.14%, followed by "Asian
or Pacific Islander" at 7.85% and "Black" at 6.71%.
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Vermont
Public School Gender Ratios
The ratio of males to females in Vermont’s public school population has remained
relatively constant over the last seven years (since FY93). In FY02 the enrollment
is 48.5% female and 51.5% male. |
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DATA
COLLECTION METHODOLOGY
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The FY02 enrollment data
collected for this report was obtained from a complete list of Vermont public school
students, the October 1st Census. FY02 is the second year data was collected using
this methodology. Prior year’s data was collected from an automated and paper survey
that was conducted during the month of October, with the counts to be "as of
October 1st." |
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COMPOUNDED
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
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The Compounded Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR) was used to measure public school enrollment growth in Vermont.
The formula looks at the first and last years’ enrollment values and compares them
over the number of years in the specified time frame to determine an annual enrollment
growth rate. |
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REFERENCES
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Gerald, Debra E. and
William J. Hussar. Projections of Education Statistics to 2008. National Center for
Education Statistics, U. S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research
and Improvement, NCES 98016. |
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FY
2000 Enrollment Report
| FY
2001 Enrollment Report
FY
2002 Enrollment Report
Enrollment
Reports
School
Data & Reports
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