SCHOOL DATA & REPORTS:
ENROLLMENT REPORTS:
FY 2002 PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT REPORT

Purpose and Executive Summary

• Vermont Public School Enrollment Trends
• Enrollment Projections: Grades K-12
• Vermont Public School Ethnic Distribution
• Vermont Public School Gender Ratios

• Table 1: Student Enrollment Survey - Statewide Summary by Grade, Ethnicity, and Gender

• Table 2: Vermont Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers - FY77 to FY02

• Figure 1: Vermont Public School Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers - FY77 to FY02

• Table 3: Vermont Public School Ethnic Enrollment Summary - FY77 to FY02

• Figure 2: Vermont Public School Ethnic Enrollment Numbers - FY77 to FY02

• Table 4: FY02 Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers by Grade and School within County (Legend)

• Table 5: FY02 Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Numbers by Gender and Public School within County (Legend)

• Table 6: Five-year Comparison of Enrollment Numbers & Compounded Annual Growth Rates by School (Legend)

Vermont Public School Enrollment Trends
There are 100,867 students enrolled in FY02, a decrease of 1.16% from the 102,049 students enrolled in FY01 (Table 6). This decrease can be attributed in part to a new data collection methodology. This is the second year data was derived from a complete list of students in Vermont schools, the October 1st Census. A decline in enrollment was anticipated because the new methodology does not allow a single student to be counted in multiple schools as with the previous method. This is the fifth year of declining enrollment after a peak of 106,341 students in FY97. During the twelve year period from FY86 to FY97, Vermont experienced a 14.5% increase in enrollment.

• Table 6: Five-year Comparison of Enrollment Numbers & Compounded Annual Growth Rates by School (Legend)

Enrollment Projections: Grades K-12
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) provides K-12 enrollment predictions for the years 1996 to 2008 (Table A below). The predicted enrollment number for Vermont in 2002 was 107,000. Actual enrollment this year is 100,867 or 5.7% lower than the predicted amount. In contrast to Vermont's enrollment trend, NCES projects a slight increase in enrollment of 0.6% between 1996 and 2002. NCES further predicts a declining enrollment from 2002 to 2008. Overall, public school enrollment in Vermont is expected to decrease 2.0% between 1996 and 2008.

Nationwide, K-8 enrollment is expected to increase 2.1% between 1996 and 2008. However, enrollment predictions for grades K to 8 in Vermont show a 4.4% decline from 1996 to 2008. The actual K-8 enrollment number for 2002 is 69,170 or 5.2% lower than the predicted enrollment of 73,000.

For grades 9 to 12, nationwide enrollment is expected to increase 14.7% between 1996 and 2008. Vermont 9-12 enrollment is projected to increase by only 4.0% over the same period. Actual enrollment for 2002 is 31,697 or 6.7% lower than the predicted 34,000.

The predicted changes in Vermont's public school enrollment are mostly consistent with the expected changes for the Northeast region. K-8 enrollment in the Northeast is expected to decline by 3.8% between 1996 to 2008. Grades 9 to 12 are predicted to increase 11.9% from 1996 to 2008, with most of the increase being an 8.5% increase from 1996 to 2002. Overall the Northeast is expected to have an increase in enrollment by 0.7% between 1996 and 2008. Predicted enrollment changes range from an increase of 4.0% in New Jersey to a decrease of 9.2% in Maine.

National enrollment numbers for all grades are expected to rise 5.6% from 1996 to 2008, with 5.0% of that increase coming from the years 1996 to 2002. The predicted enrollment varies between states from an increase of 21.4% in Arizona to Maine's decrease of 9.2%.

Vermont Public School Ethnic Distribution
Ethnic enrollment since FY77 is presented in Table 3. The procedures for collecting ethnic enrollment have changed over the years. In FY95 and FY96 the enrollment survey included a category of "Other" to be used for students who were of mixed ethnic backgrounds. This category, which may have contributed to higher minority enrollment numbers, was discontinued in FY97. Beginning FY2000, the enrollment in ethnic categories "Asian" and "Hawaiian/Pacific Islander" were collected separately. In Table 3, the data are pooled to allow for comparison which the previous year's category, "Asian or Pacific Islander".

Elementary and secondary enrollment among the minorities in Vermont has increased from 513 in FY77 to 4,244 in FY02 (Table 3). Ethnic enrollment numbers have increased 65% since FY94. The FY02 ethnic enrollment is slightly higher than the FY01 number of 3,736. Similarly, the percentage of minorities has increased to 4.21%.

In FY01 "Asians" and "Blacks," with enrollments of 1,517 and 1,165 respectively, comprised 63.2% of Vermont's elementary and secondary minority enrollment population.

The ethnic group with the largest increase between FY77 and FY01 are the "Hispanic" category, with a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.26%, followed by "Asian or Pacific Islander" with a CAGR of 9.58%. "Native American Indian" and "Black" each have a CAGR of 9.32% and 7.05% respectively. The increase being reported in the "Native American/Alaskan" category may be due in part to heightening awareness and efforts to accurately report students' ethnic backgrounds. In the short term, from FY94 to FY02 the category "Native American/Alaskan" has actually decreased with a CAGR of -1.08%. The category with the highest growth rate during this same period is "Hispanic" at 16.14%, followed by "Asian or Pacific Islander" at 7.85% and "Black" at 6.71%.

• Table 3: Vermont Public School Ethnic Enrollment Summary - FY77 to FY02

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